Public inflation expectations fall to 8.7% in September 2026

According to the Central Bank, the public's average forecast dropped to an all-time low. The median estimate remained unchanged and, as in August, stood at 8%. Among business owners, average expectations declined from 9.6% to 9.2%, while the median rose from 8% to 9%. The survey covered 2,726 residents and 1,043 businesses.

Among the regions, the highest forecast was given by Tashkent residents (11.6%), and the lowest by Khorezm region (6.8%). By occupational group, pensioners expect price rises the most (12.4%), while retail workers expect them the least (7.8%). Respondents with incomes above 30 million soums cited 14.4%, while those earning under 2 million soums cited 7.6%. Among business owners, the transport services sector leads (10.7%), with expectations lowest in tourism (7.5%).

Residents still consider rising prices for fuel and energy (50%) and utility tariffs (38% compared to 53% in August) to be the main drivers of future price increases. The share of those citing food products grew from 21% to 31%. Business owners were nearly twice as likely to cite the rising cost of raw materials (37% compared to 19%) and the tax burden (29% compared to 15%).

Perceived inflation among households dropped to 9.2% in September from 10.1% a month earlier, according to Central Bank estimates. The National Statistics Committee estimated annual inflation in September at 6.4%.