Counterpoint: global smartphone shipments under $200 to drop 40% by 2030

According to estimates by analysts, the global market will lose more than 230 million affordable devices per year. At the same time, the total volume of smartphone sales of all categories by the end of the decade will recover to the levels of 2025 and amount to around 1.2 billion devices per year.

The main factor in the compression of the budget segment is the rise in prices for RAM and chipsets, triggered, among other things, by the construction of data processing centers for artificial intelligence. In the first two quarters of 2026, the cost of RAM increased by more than twofold compared to the end of 2025. Due to the high share of components in the cost, the production costs of devices cheaper than $200 increased by approximately 25%, while for the middle segment the increase was 15%, and for flagships - 10%.

At the same time, the minimum technical requirements for entry-level devices are growing, which reduces the profitability of lines for $100-150. According to Counterpoint, the supply of models more expensive than $200 from 2025 to 2030 will increase by approximately 26%, and the premium segment will grow by about 7% per year. The analytical company notes that the compression of the budget sector will primarily affect consumers in developing countries, forcing them to switch to used devices or equipment of a higher price segment.