Global shipments of smartphones under $200 to drop 40% by 2030, Counterpoint says

According to analysts' estimates, the global market will lose more than 230 million low-cost devices per year. At the same time, total sales volume of smartphones across all categories will recover to 2025 levels by the end of the decade, reaching about 1.2 billion devices annually.

The main factor behind the contraction of the budget segment is cited as rising prices for RAM and chipsets, driven in part by the construction of data centers for artificial intelligence. Over the first two quarters of 2026, the cost of RAM more than doubled compared to the end of 2025. Due to the high share of components in the cost of production, manufacturing expenses for devices under $200 increased by approximately 25%, while the increase was 15% for the mid-range segment and 10% for flagships.

In parallel, minimum technical requirements for entry-level devices are rising, which reduces the profitability of product lines in the $100–150 range. According to Counterpoint, shipments of models over $200 will grow by approximately 26% from 2025 to 2030, while the premium segment will gain around 7% per year. The analytical firm notes that the contraction of the budget sector will primarily affect consumers in developing countries, forcing them to switch to used devices or higher-priced electronics.