Central Bank of Uzbekistan keeps policy rate at 14% and raises 2026 inflation forecast

According to the Central Bank, annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in September from 6.2% in August. Fruit and vegetable prices, fuel, and some services rose in cost. Service prices increased by 7% over the year, while core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5%. At the same time, inflation expectations are declining: in September, households expected prices to rise by 8.7% over the next 12 months, and business expectations stood at 9.2%.

The regulator revised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 6.5% to about 7%. Among the reasons, the Central Bank cited strong domestic demand, risks of higher energy prices on global markets, and planned increases in several regulated prices. The Central Bank expects to bring inflation back to the 5% target by the end of 2027.

Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8.3% in January–September compared to the same period last year, with industry, construction, and the services sector making the primary contributions. The Central Bank now estimates economic growth in 2026 at about 8%, compared to the 7.5–8% expected in July.

The regulator indicated that future policy rate decisions will depend on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations, domestic demand, and external risks. The next policy rate meeting is scheduled for December 16, 2026. The rate has been maintained at 14% since March 2025, when it was raised from 13.5%.